After three years, prices will triple the premium is now up

 According to media reports economist, Financial Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Ren Zhongwei that an important factor in rapid increases in house prices is land. According to his calculations, the current price and the price of land three years ago, the largest correlation three years ago. premium multiplied by three or four, which is now housing prices. According to Mr. Zhong calculation, Guangzhou is now the land is 5600 yuan to 5800 yuan per square meter, which means the central area of Guangzhou, after three years there will be no 20,000 yuan / m2 house below . He said that the current revaluation of the domestic asset prices are in the process and therefore can not predict a price of real estate prices to what is reasonable. and Zhong Wei believes that housing prices in Beijing area the price of 40,000 yuan per square meter may be maintained a stable development. Although I have great respect for Mr. Zhong Wei is also admiration for his vast knowledge, particularly in the financial sector and economic areas of research and insights. but the central area of Guangzhou, three years after Mr. Chung will not have 20,000 yuan / m2 inference of the following formulation in the house can not agree. because of changes in property prices is a lot of factors, both policy factors, there are supply and demand factors, a factor which can not rely solely on land value can make a simple inferred. Moreover, the determination of prices is not entirely based on the number and cost of how much land to develop the. land and property prices is indeed a very close relationship, but I do not know how Mr. Chung three years ago, the premium can be drawn multiplied by three or four, which is now housing prices. We know that the industry does have some simple way to estimate that land prices are generally 1 / 3. However, this method is not scientific, but in the land premium, construction costs and Maori are suitable under the conditions of equality. And when the land cost is only 2000-3000 yuan / square meter, or even less than 1,000 yuan / square meter, the property prices are over ten thousand, or even 2-3 yuan / square meter, so that the case of Mr. Chung's formula is clearly invalid. In fact, land prices in Guangzhou in May this year, if only the calculation of the premium since the central urban area, there may be 5600-5800 RMB / square meter level, but if the land by year and the city Calculation of the turnover should be not so high level, should be in the 3000-4000 yuan / square meters. while residential land prices in Guangzhou is about three years ago in 1000-2000 yuan / square meter level, according to Mr. Chung's formula now prices should be at most 6000-8000 yuan / square meter level; but in fact the average price of ten districts in Guangzhou is close to the current yuan / square meter, the city has reached the highest price 2-3 yuan / square meter. R & F Group Managing Director Li Lian has long will housing prices, land prices expressed his views, he said: the current price exceeds the tolerance of most people, a little too high, hoping to stabilize prices more; more expensive than bread flour is dangerous , there is a risk premium is too high; over the past two years, selling land projects into the market, the level of housing prices, still depends on how well the market will bear. I agree with Mr. Li Silian compare views should not be divorced from the local market will bear ability to talk about house prices and land prices. even for developers, house prices soaring is not a good thing, cause a lot of people are buying houses they can not afford housing demand is not conducive to a harmonious society members on 30 November .2007 Day